Summary: Recent data reveals that U.S. bookings for winter holidays made 0-7 days before arrival tend to have lower prices, challenging the traditional notion that early bookings are always better.
The holiday season is upon us, and you know what that means: Time to start making your plans for Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Year’s Eve.
If any of these plans involve a trip or even a vacation rental for a staycation, you may be under the impression that booking earlier will save you money. After all, booking earlier is always cheaper, right?
Well, not quite.
A recent analysis of Lodgify bookings for Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Year’s Eve from 2021-2023 shows that last-minute bookings (those made 0-7 days before check-in) almost always yield the lowest rates. (See our full methodology here.)
Whether this is due to an excess of vacation rental supply, post-pandemic changes in travel behavior, high numbers of cancellations and relistings, or something else entirely, the result is the same: Travelers are saving money by booking their winter holidays at the last minute.
So, before you press “book” for your upcoming vacation, take a look at the following numbers to check whether you might be able to save (and thus celebrate) even more this holiday season.
When to book for Thanksgiving
So, what should travelers know about Thanksgiving this year? About four weeks out from the holiday, is it too late to book to get a good deal?
The data here is clear: Booking 0-7 days before check-in has consistently yielded the lowest price per night (PPN) over the past three Thanksgivings.
While the second- and third-cheapest booking windows haven’t been the same each year, the most expensive time to book has been consistent, at 61-90 days before check-in. (Fortunately for those who haven’t booked yet, this booking window has already passed.)
If the general trend continues, prices will likely continue to drop as the holiday draws nearer. So, keep an eye on the rates and be ready to book when the price is right.
Key numbers from 2023:
- Average daily rate (ADR): $346.27
- Average length of stay (ALOS): 3.4 days
- Average booking window: 35.3 days
When to book for Christmas
The good news is that, whether you’ve been naughty or nice this year, you can take advantage of last-minute deals for Christmas bookings as well: Keeping with the numbers from Thanksgiving, the booking window of 0-7 days has yielded the lowest nightly rates for the past three years.
Interestingly, while the booking window of 91+ days had the second-cheapest nightly rates in 2021, it brought the second most expensive rates in both 2022 and 2023, serving as yet another reminder that earlier is not always better when it comes to vacation rental bookings.
So, when should you make your Christmas reservations, if you haven’t already? As we explained above, waiting till a week before Santa comes will likely get you the best prices. However, if you’re worried about leaving your holiday plans till the last minute, you should still be able to get a good deal.
Eight weeks (or 56 days) out from Christmas, our advice is to wait a bit longer. While prices spiked during the 31-60 day booking window in 2022, data from all years suggests they’ll start to drop 30 days from the holiday. That means you should start looking about a month before Christmas, waiting as long as you feel comfortable before booking.
Key numbers from 2023:
- Average daily rate (ADR): $394.67
- Average length of stay (ALOS): 4.7 days
- Average booking window: 42.7 days
See also: Lodgify Report: Budget Travelers Shape the 2023 Holiday Season
When to book for New Year’s Eve
The numbers paint a slightly different picture for New Year’s Eve: Last-minute bookings brought the lowest rates in 2022 and 2023, but not in 2021. However, in this case, we’re talking about a difference of just 60 cents: While the booking window of 91+ days yielded average nightly prices of $89.40 in 2021, the booking window of 0-7 days came in at $90.00.
Also different for New Year’s Eve is that the 91+ days booking window had the second-cheapest rates in both 2022 and 2023. So, New Year’s Eve is a case where you either want to book really early (91+ days in advance), or at the very last minute. And considering that we’re currently about nine weeks (or 63 days) out from New Year’s Eve, travelers who haven’t booked yet may be better off doing the latter.
Key numbers from 2023:
- Average daily rate (ADR): $363.14
- Average length of stay (ALOS): 6.4 days
- Average booking window: 35.9 days
Don’t wait to book your winter vacation
There you have it: When it comes to vacation rentals for winter holidays, good things do come to those who wait.
So, if you’re still not sure what you’re doing New Year’s Eve (or even on Christmas Eve or Thanksgiving), don’t stress. You still have time to consider your options, make your plans, invite your loved ones, and get a good deal while you’re at it.
Methodology
We analyzed over 72,300 U.S. bookings in Lodgify’s internal data from 2021-2023, including direct bookings as well as bookings from Airbnb, Vrbo, Booking.com, Expedia, Google Vacation Rentals, and other online travel agencies (OTAs). All reservations analyzed were for stays with check-in during the following date ranges:
- 2021:
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- Thanksgiving: Wednesday, November 24, 2021 – Sunday, November 28, 2021
- Christmas: Thursday, December 23, 2021 – Sunday, December 26, 2021
- New Year’s Eve: Thursday, December 30, 2021 – Sunday, January 2, 2022
- 2022:
- Thanksgiving: Wednesday, November 23, 2022 – Sunday, November 27, 2022
- Christmas: Friday, December 23, 2022 – Monday, December 26, 2022
- New Year’s Eve: Friday, December 30, 2022 – Monday, January 2, 2023
- 2023:
- Thanksgiving: Wednesday, November 22, 2023 – Sunday, November 26, 2023
- Christmas: Saturday, December 23, 2023 – Tuesday, December 26, 2023
- New Year’s Eve: Saturday, December 30, 2023 – Tuesday, January 2, 2024
For reservations that meet the above criteria, we compared booking windows (the number of days prior to check-in in which a traveler books) with price per night to see how far in advance guests should book to get the best deal.
Note here the difference between price per night (PPN) and average daily rate (ADR). While ADR shows the average revenue that a unit earns per day, PPN represents the ADR adjusted for the number of guests, and is the cost to stay for two people. We have used PPN, rather than ADR, in our analysis in order to accurately compare vacation rentals with different guest capacities.
